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Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell. Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 1: Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington Commanders betting picks, preview

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 9/7/23

The second-largest spread of the weekend can be found here between Arizona and Washington. The number is set for good reason, despite both teams coming off last-place finishes in their divisions last season.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington Commanders: Betting Odds

Spread: Washington -7, Over/under: 38 points, Arizona +260 | Washington -325

The expectation for Arizona this season is nothing short but the worst team in the NFL. Kyler Murray is out for what appears to be a solid chunk of the season, and this roster is devoid of depth and talent. Washington is healthy on the defensive side of the ball, and is handing their offense to unproven QB Sam Howell. Washington went 8-8-1 ATS last year, while Arizona was 8-9.

Betting Picks for Arizona vs. Washington

Washington -7

It's a big spread for the Commanders here, but it's a number I'm comfortable backing. Fading the Cardinals is going to be a regular occurrence here, and if you're in survivor pools, this might be a good time to use Washington.

The Cardinals will be trotting out Joshua Dobbs as their starting quarterback here after surprisingly cutting veteran Colt McCoy in August. Dobbs has thrown 85 career passes, owning a 58.8% completion rate and tossing two touchdowns to three interceptions.

The choice to hand the offense to Dobbs is feeling like an obvious set-up for a year of tanking, with eyes on Heisman-winning QB Caleb Williams out of USC. The Cardinals have one of the NFL's worst offensive lines, worst secondaries, and worst skill-position groups. It's going to be pretty hard to win in this league when you're weak in such pivotal parts of your lineup.

We're also not too confident in new head coach Jonathan Gannon. His cringe-worthy speeches and sound clips aside, Gannon had a reputation for running bland defenses that can be picked apart by talented passers. While Sam Howell may not fall into that bucket, it's a problem likely to rear its ugly head more often than not this season.

Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.

As for Washington, the Commanders' defense has a chance to be one of the league's best this year. They have an elite pass rush and an exciting secondary, which includes rookie Emmanuel Forbes at corner.

Howell is getting buzz, and he has a talented group of pass-catchers led by Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson that should make his life easier.

Expect the Commanders to wreck the Cardinals' offensive line and stifle Arizona's scoring chances. Take the points here.

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