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Arizona Cardinals quarterbacks Joshua Dobbs (9) and Clayton Tune (15). Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

NFL best bets: Week 1 'Beat the Line' moves

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 9/1/23

The NFL consistently features the sharpest betting lines of any professional sports league every year, so it's crucial to give yourself closing line value by betting into the spread and total markets early. With the start of the season less than a week away, let's pounce on two spreads and one total I believe will give us closing line value by kickoff.

Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Commanders

The Cardinals have done everything to tell the NFL they're trying to lose games short of renaming their team the Arizona Tankers.

This offseason, the Cardinals cut DeAndre Hopkins to create a $21 million hole in dead money, traded away linebacker Isaiah Simmons and offensive tackle Josh Jones for pennies on the dollar, and released Colt McCoy, the only healthy, established NFL quarterback on their roster. Arizona will enter the season with Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune as the only healthy QBs on the roster, and there's no telling if Kyler Murray will return to play a single snap this year.

Head coach Jonathan Gannon hasn't named a starting QB yet, but nothing he decides will entice big bettors to hit the underdogs at +7. In fact, that announcement is more likely to push the spread up over a touchdown. Seven is such a key number in the NFL, and you'll be happy you locked it in ahead of time.

The early bet to make: Commanders -7 (-110 DraftKings)

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have been the ultimate cash cow in Week 1 under head coach John Harbaugh. Since Harbaugh's first season in charge in 2008, Baltimore is 11-4 straight up with a +206 point differential in Week 1 games (average winning margin of 13.7).

The Ravens will have a massive coaching advantage this year against the Texans and first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans. Houston will also be starting rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, and his No. 1 wide receiver will be Nico Collins.

This is the most glaring mismatch on the Week 1 slate, and I wouldn't be surprised if this spread creeps over 10 at every sportsbook by kickoff. You still have a chance to lock it in at 9.5 with minimal juice, but it might not last much longer.

The early bet to make: Ravens -9.5 (-113 BetRivers)

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

We started with two spread bets to target for NFL Week 1. Let's transition to a total.

The Bills will make the short trip to MetLife Stadium to play the new-look Jets on "Monday Night Football," and we're eyeing up the under in this one. Seven of the last eight meetings between these AFC East rivals have gone under this total, with the average total settling out at 36.5 points per game.

You might think the Jets will run a high-powered offense with Aaron Rodgers now at the helm, but I'm expecting them to slow the game down and keep the ball out of Josh Allen's hands as much as possible. New York's defense is also perfectly built to stop Buffalo's offense. This nasty defensive line will make life difficult for Allen, and Sauce Gardner can at least slow down Stefon Diggs and force the ball elsewhere.

This total has already crept down from 47 at open to 46.5 and 46 at other books, and it will crash even more if the Week 1 slate ends up being lower-scoring than the oddsmakers predict.

The early bet to make: Under 46.5 (-110 BetMGM)

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