Red Sox’ Triston Casas named AL Rookie of the Year finalist

Already in the running for his first Silver Slugger Award, Casas was recognized alongside the likes of Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee and Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson. The 23-year-old will look to become the first Red Sox player to earn AL Rookie of the Year honors since Dustin Pedroia in 2007 when winners in each league are unveiled next Monday, November 13, on MLB Network.

Casas entered the 2023 season as one of the top prospects in Boston’s farm system after making his major-league debut last September. The former first-round draft selection expectedly made the Sox’ Opening Day roster out of spring training in March but struggled out of the gate. By the end of April, he found himself batting just .133/.283/.293 with three home runs and eight RBIs through his first 25 games of the year.

As the calendar flipped to May, though, Casas began to turn a corner offensively. His OPS continuously rose through the early summer months and he then broke out to the tune of a ridiculous .349/.442/.758 line with seven home runs and 13 RBIs in 21 July contests to take home Rookie of the Month honors in the junior circuit.

Casas remained hot at the plate even as Boston fell out of contention in the American League East, but his first full season in the major-leagues drew to a premature close when he was shut down with right shoulder inflammation in mid-September. Despite the disappointing finish, the left-handed hitter still put together one of the more impressive Red Sox rookie campaigns in recent memory by slashing a stout .263/.367/.470 with 21 doubles, two triples, 24 homers, 65 RBIs, 66 runs scored, a team-high 70 walks, and 126 strikeouts in 132 games (502 plate appearances).

Among 27 qualified rookies in the American League this season, Casas ranked ninth in batting average, fourth in on-base percentage, sixth in slugging percentage, third in OPS (.856), third in walk rate (13.9 percent), eighth in isolated power (.226), and fifth in wRC+ (129), per FanGraphs. He also ranked third in wOBA (.367), third in barrel rate (13.1 percent), and seventh in hard-hit rate (46.6 percent), according to Statcast.

Defensively, all but two of Casas’ 117 starts came at first base this year. The burly 6-foot-5, 244-pounder logged 1,037 innings at the position, committing five errors in 958 chances. In spite of the high fielding percentage, though, Casas graded poorly in other areas, including defensive runs saved (-4) and outs above average (-10). To that end, his value (i.e. WAR) took somewhat a hit.

When comparing Casas’ value this season to that of Bibee’s and Henderson’s, the Red Sox slugger accrued the least amount of fWAR (1.7) between the trio of rookies. Bibee (3.0) went 10-4 with a 2.98 ERA and 141 strikeouts to 45 walks in 25 starts (142 innings) for Cleveland. Henderson (4.6), meanwhile, hit .255/.325/.489 with 29 doubles, nine triples, 28 home runs, 82 RBIs, 100 runs scored, 10 stolen bases, 56 walks, and 159 strikeouts in 150 games (622 plate appearances) for Baltimore while providing plus defense at both third base and shortstop.

Taking all that into consideration, Henderson is viewed as the favorite to win the award next week. If Casas were to pull off an upset, though, the Red Sox would receive an additional pick following the first round of next year’s amateur draft as a result of MLB’s new Prospect Promotion Initiative. Casas, who meets those qualifications because he came into the season with fewer than 60 days of big-league service time and was a consensus preseason top 100 prospect, would also be credited with a full year of service time if he finishes first or second in voting. But that is a moot point anyway since Casas already spent the entirety of the 2023 season on Boston’s major-league roster.

Regardless of the results, Casas is the first Rookie of the Year finalist the Red Sox have had since Andrew Benintendi in 2017. After establishing himself as Boston’s first baseman of the future, Casas — who turns 24 in January — could be in line for a contract extension depending on how things play out this winter.